Chances for Precipitation on Thursday are Dropping

March 3rd, 2021
Depicted here is the European Model's prediction for the coming system: it just grazes the...
Depicted here is the European Model's prediction for the coming system: it just grazes the southern portions of Albany and Laramie county while mainly impacting Colorado.(KGWN)
Published: Mar. 3, 2021 at 11:55 AM CST
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The spring like conditions have been very enjoyable thus far this week, however that chance of rain and/or snow has been looming all week as well. A low pressure system approaching from the southwest looks to bring a chance for rain, snow, or maybe both to a portion of Southeast Wyoming tomorrow afternoon and evening as it makes its way into Colorado. The chances for that precipitation in Wyoming are dropping, however.

The two primary models, the American and European, have both been hinting at the possibility for some rain and snow in Southeast Wyoming all week long. As of this morning, however, the American model has backed off. For the past several years, the American model has essentially been the little brother to the European: typically the European would see one thing and the American another, and then a few days before the system’s arrival the American would bend and give way to the forecast the European was predicting. In February of 2021, however, the American model underwent a massive upgrade, and now looks to rival the European’s consistency. It has now broken away from the forecast, predicting that this coming system will be too far south to really impact Wyoming with the exception of a slight cool-down and some cloudy weather on Thursday.

Now, this does not mean that the American or the European is 100% correct. Neither ever are, but with the recent upgrade the GFS (American Model) has shown it can challenge the Euro. This essentially means there is a possibility that this system can indeed miss Wyoming entirely, and that its predictions cannot just be thrown away. Assuming the system does indeed impact Wyoming tomorrow, the only locations likely to see anything would be Laramie and Cheyenne, with Laramie for sure starting off with snow and Cheyenne potentially beginning with rain and quickly shifting to snow as temperatures fall. Impacts of this system will be minimal regardless of which model is right; the warm temperatures this week will limit accumulations, and the return of even warmer conditions once it passes will ensure any accumulations melt rapidly. The I-80 Summit and the Laramie Range in Albany and Laramie counties could see accumulations: that is if the European model’s forecast holds true. If this is the case expect some black ice on the I-80 summit: winds are expected to remain calm with the arrival and passing of this system. Portions of Colorado, which will be impacted by this system, could see nothing but rain given the recent warmth.

Regardless of whether or not you like the snow or rain, Wyoming needs precipitation with only a few months remaining before dry, summer conditions make a return. Drought levels around the state are still way above where they should be, and given how the summer of 2020 ended (the Mullen Fire) after a not so dry start, this could be bad news.

CHEYENNE, Wyo. (Wyoming News Now) -

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