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Fire Threats Drop for Wednesday

October 7th, 2020
The NWS has issued a Fire Weather Watch until 8:00 PM MDT Thursday for parts of Eastern and Central Wyoming due to forecasted breezy conditions for some regions Thursday afternoon.
The NWS has issued a Fire Weather Watch until 8:00 PM MDT Thursday for parts of Eastern and Central Wyoming due to forecasted breezy conditions for some regions Thursday afternoon.(KGWN)
Published: Oct. 7, 2020 at 12:00 PM CDT
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For the first time this week there are no active Red Flag Warnings anywhere in Wyoming. This is largely due to winds finally calming down across the board in Wyoming for the afternoon. The lack of winds should allow firefighters to make some progress in the battle against the Mullen fire in southeastern Wyoming. Of course, while no wind for today is overall a good thing, there is one downside to the calmer conditions. Without the winds blowing across the state, the haze that has spread from the Mullen fire is likely to sit over wherever it has been blown to. So Cheyenne will continue to see smoky skies for Wednesday despite a gentle flow of wind from the east. Smoke has been blowing eastward the past few days thanks to westerly winds, and now that smoke is just blowing back towards the west, keeping the Capital City under hazy skies. Air quality alerts have been constant for the southeastern portion of Wyoming since the Mullen fire exploded in size, and more of them are likely to be issued as time goes on.

After today the fire threats will make a return. Fire Weather Watches are in effect for several counties in Northeast and Central Wyoming until 8:00 PM Thursday, and these will likely become Red Flag Warnings by Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. The threats will be on and off into the weekend as the winds come and go to various areas around the state. Over the weekend things will be interesting with a powerful cold front moving in, and it has the potential to bring widespread rain. As of now, however, the two main weather models are not in agreement with what will happen come Sunday. The European Model has been calling for rain Sunday since this past weekend, and the numbers that it is giving are becoming less variable as we get closer to the coming weekend. The American model on the other hand cannot make up its mind on what is going to happen: yesterday morning it was being very aggressive with forecast rain totals for Sunday, yet this morning it has much of Eastern Wyoming receiving little to no rain at all on Sunday. Should the American model continue to flip-flop on what is going to happen, it likely will not be a good predictor for what will happen Sunday. The models do agree on a major temperature drop heading into next week however along with some strong winds after the system passes. Depending on where the strongest winds are, the Mullen fire could potentially grow again if the rain can’t dampen it on Sunday.

CHEYENNE, Wyo. (Wyoming News Now) -

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